In the midst of Smoltz’s departure and the other dark clouds that have been surrounding the Braves’ front office the past 3 months, a beacon of hope for success in 2009 shone through on Saturday when the Braves acquired Kenshin Kawakami, the long-time ace of the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Pro Baseball (Japan’s MLB). Kawakami will be used as a starting pitcher for the Braves in 2009 and for the rest of his 3-year contract. This move somewhat solidifies the rotation, of which 3 members are now known (Vazquez, Jurrjens, and Kawakami). So, what should we expect from Kawakami?
Achievements:
Kawakami’s achievements in Japan speak for themselves. He was the rookie of the year in 1998 going 14-6. In 2002 he threw a no-hitter against the division rival Yomiuri Giants. This Giants team still featured Hideki Matsui. He won the league’s equivalent of a Cy Young and MVP in 2004. Kawakami has since been rather dominant in the NPB. As previously stated, his NPB achievements speak for themselves. Coming into this season, Patrick at NPB tracker listed Kawakami as the Japanese free-agent with the most MLB potential. This class also includes recent Red-Sox signee, Junichi Tazawa and recent Orioles’ signee, Koji Uehara.
Stuff:
Kawakami gets hitters out with his pin-point control and off-speed breaking pitches. From video footage you can see he throws a fastball that he can place anywhere he wants to, a big, loopy, slow breaking ball, and a cut fastball that breaks bats and gets a lot of ground balls. He also throws a forkball and a shuuto, both of which are fairly standard in a NPB starters’ repertoire (the pitch that Americans confuse with the gyroball is the shuuto, and Daisuke Matsuzaka throws a shuuto rather than a gyroball). His fastball is low-90’s at best. Kawakami’s ability to change speeds and throw his off-speed pitches for strikes while pin-pointing his fastball will most likely result in a lot of weakly hit ground balls. Luckily for him, the Braves’ have one of the best infield defenses in the MLB. Coming into this season, Patrick at NPB tracker listed Kawakami as the Japanese free-agent with the most MLB potential. This class also includes recent Red-Sox signee, Junichi Tazawa and recent Orioles’ signee, Koji Uehara.
Comparison to Hiroki Kuroda:
Ever since Kuroda finished a season for the Dodgers, people have been comparing Kuroda to Kawakami. If you’ll recall, Kuroda took a perfect game into the 8th inning against the Braves at Dodger stadium on July 7 of this past year. He finished the game allowing only 1 hit and no walks while striking out 6. Note: this was the day after that 17-inning marathon game against the Astros at Turner Field and the Braves didn’t arrive in Los Angeles until the wee hours of the morning the day they were to play the Dodgers. This probably had something to do with the lazy bats. Kuroda is a year older than Kawakami and has similar NPB lifetime numbers. Kawakami is 112-72 with a 3.22 ERA and 1328 K’s whereas Kuroda is 103-89 with a 3.69 ERA and 1257 K’s. Kawakami’s K/BB ratio (3.78) is much better than Kuroda’s (2.82). Kawakami hasn’t walked 40 batters in a season since his sophomore in 1999 while Kuroda walked at least 40 in practically every other season since his rookie. Kuroda never topped 200 innings in the NPB (he came close, 197 in 2003), while Kawakami pitched 215 innings in 2006. Though Kawakami posted better numbers in virtually all categories during his time in NPB, Kuroda came close. Therefore, we should probably expect similar numbers from the two. Kuroda went 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA in 2008 for the LA Dodgers. He struck-out 116 batters, walked 42, and posted a WHIP of 1.22 in 183.1 innings. Those numbers are very similar to our own Jair Jurrjens who went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA striking out 139 and walking 70 with a WHIP of 1.37 in 188.1 innings. Jurrjens allowed fewer hits but walked 28 more batters resulting in a higher WHIP. Jurrjens is clearly more dominant but not necessarily more effective. I think we can expect numbers similar to Kuroda’s. Patrick at NPB tracker seen Kawakami as even more of a finesse pitcher than Kuroda so the walks and K’s could probably both go down.
Overall, I like this signing provided it’s for 8 million or less per year. 8 million is what the Braves paid Tom Glavine last year and I expect a full, healthy season of Kawakami to be on-par with a full, healthy season of Tom Glavine (of now, pre-Mets). So, what’s the buzz? Do you like it or hate it? Let me know what you think about Kawakami and the signing. Maybe more than anything we’ve broken into the Japanese market and the next Daisuke Matsuzaka will consider us when he makes his move to the MLB.
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January 12, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Perhaps we can now pull the trigger on the Ichiro/Gregor Blanco deal that has been sitting on Frank Wren's desk for weeks.
January 12, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Kawakami played in a more pitcher-friendly home-park than Kuroda who play for Hiroshima Toyo Carp. .
Chunichi Dragons' homepark:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagoya_Dome
Hiroshima Toyo Carp's homepark:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroshima_Municipa...
At least, people can see the different outfiled dimensons.